Excess mortality and Covid vaccination in Europe: statistical correlation proven
A new study by the Australian pharmacologist Raphael Lataster (1), published in the journal “Bulgarian Medicine”, shows a clear correlation of excess mortality in Europe with Covid-19 “vaccinations.” The paper uses data from the European Statistical Office Eurostat on excess mortality in 31 European countries from March 2023 to January 2024 and correlates it with data on the percentage of the population vaccinated and the number of vaccine doses from the internet database “Our World in Data” (OWID). This means that for each month from March 23 to January 24, data on excess mortality was available for each of the 31 countries, as well as data on the number of vaccine doses or percentage of vaccinated people per country. There is a moderate correlation in each month, significant in every case except November 2023. This correlation is greater for the series of vaccine doses. The correlations range between r = .25 and r = .65. Correlations are relationship measures and express the strength of a relationship between two variables. They can vary between 0 (no relationship) and 1 (maximum positive relationship) or -1 (maximum negative relationship).
Source: Prof. Harald Walach, MWGFD e.V., 02 Sept. 2024
The correlations found here are moderately strong and very clear because they are significant in almost every month. As the significance depends on the number of cases and only 31 countries are available in this calculation, the relationships must be relatively clear across all countries in order to be significant. The level of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship (regardless of significance). If it is squared, the proportion of common variation is obtained. A correlation coefficient of r = .5, for example, would result in r2 = .25 squared and would therefore represent 25% of the common variation.
In plain language, this means that the trends in vaccination and excess mortality have a common variation of somewhere between 6% and 40%. To put it another way: Covid-19 vaccinations and excess mortality in Europe are clearly linked between March 2023 and January 2024. Why only these months were chosen or are available is unfortunately not mentioned in the article and is a weak point.
Conversely, this also refutes the frequently voiced claim that the Covid-19 “vaccinations” have saved lives. Because if they were only positive, there should be no correlation here. In addition, my colleague Rainer Klement and I already showed last year that the frequently cited modelling study by Watson and colleagues (2) is simply wrong because it is based on incorrect model assumptions (3). The trouble is, such hyped up reports are eagerly seized by the press. Sober criticism, on the other hand, as in our case, has to go through many rounds of peer review and resubmissions until it is published and then nobody cares anymore.
In any case, Lataster’s study shows that the potential side effects of these Covid-19 “vaccinations” should not be underestimated and must be investigated more closely. The author rightly points out that his study cannot prove causality. This would require detailed, long time series studies in each country, which are very time-consuming. It’s a scandal that our offices, which are actually well-equipped, do not carry out such studies ex officio. But we now know that they are bound by instructions. And what politician likes to dig his own grave? So for the foreseeable future, private researchers without public funding, such as Raphael Lataster or ourselves, will carry out such investigations.
Literature
- Lataster, R. (2023). European excess mortality correlates with COVID-19 vaccinations into 2024. Bulgarian Medicine, 13(2), 24-28.https://basa.bg/en/images/Br_02_2023_bulgarska_medicina.pdf
- Watson, O. J., Barnsley, G., Toor, J., Hogan, A. B., Winskill, P., & Ghani, A. C. (2022). Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6
- Klement, R. J., & Walach, H. (2023). SEIR models in the light of Critical Realism – a critique of exaggerated claims about the effectiveness of Covid 19 vaccinations. Futures, 103119. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103119
